Pre-conference full-day in-depth learning sessions – Monday 13 March
Registration and morning coffee for both sessions is at 08:30 and sessions will conclude at 17:00. Lunch, morning and afternoon tea provided. Choose between:
In-depth learning session A:
Forecasting gas prices across jurisdictions and understanding potential scenarios and their implications for users
This in-depth learning session is designed for all professionals involved in the gas industry whose organisations will be impacted by movements in the gas price. Participants will be able to discuss and learn about the key drivers of prices such as LNG developments, consumption patterns and price impacts on demand, carbon policies, network utilization, regulatory outcomes and many other factors. This session will lay bare the costs of the gas supply industry and what is driving pricing and what may drive it going forward.
Oakley Greenwood and its partners completed for the Department of Industry, Innovation and Science the recently published Gas Price Trends Review - a review of gas pricing over the last 10 years, and the drivers of those price trends by each component. This landmark work covers large industrial customers and residential customers in details for all the separate jurisdiction across Australia.
Key take-away and analysis:
- Understand the historical price trends in the two key market segments and what has driven those price movements and why they are so different by state and market sector
- Examine the potential future drivers over the next 5 years in each sector and state/territory (this will be discussed in some detail with participants)
- Analyse each major cost component such as wholesale gas prices, transmission prices, distribution prices and retail cost components
- Get a deep insight into various scenarios surrounding the gas price that could unfold in the next 5-10 years
Session facilitator:
Jim Snow
Executive Director
Oakley Greenwood and Adjunct Professor, University Of Queensland
In-depth Learning Session B:
Scenario thinking for strategy development in the Australian Gas Market
Merging Scenario thinking with strategic planning provides an elegant workflow for impactful decision making in difficult markets. This is particularly helpful when the business environment is facing many macro/socio-economic uncertainties. The Australian gas market is in this situation today. Many companies are facing decisions on supply expansion, energy source switching, and how quickly to address carbon emission reduction. Gas and electricity price, cost of carbon, domestic gas supply/demand and government policies are all critical uncertainties. Future Scenarios of how these uncertainties may play out brings significant insight to strategic decision making.
This highly interactive workshop is designed to introduce scenario thinking combined with efficient strategic decision making utilizing a hypothetical Australian market case. Attendees will design possible future business environments and develop ideal strategies to succeed in them. The course will culminate with a discussion of how well different strategies will fare in the different scenarios.
This workshop is ideal for: managers setting business or corporate strategy, commercial managers, strategic planners, and economists/analysts who support strategy development in areas where there are a lot risks outside company control. The session leaders will introduce a merged scenario planning – strategic decision making workflow utilized by some of the largest energy and service companies globally.
Key take away from the session:
- Practice framing strategic decisions
- Identify the key macro uncertainties from which to base the scenarios
- Describe the uncertainness create different business environment scenarios
- Develop strategies for each of the possible futures
- Test the robustness of each strategy in the different worlds
Session facilitators:
Ellen Coopersmith,
Founder and President,
Decision Frameworks (USA)
Adrian Sikorski
Senior Decision Analysis Consultant